XRP Struggles Below $2 as Data Reveals Silent Whale Accumulation
January 30, 2026 — By Tivan
XRP started trading in 2026 with relatively stagnant price movements, remaining below the $2 mark. Throughout January, the cryptocurrency failed to establish a clear trend, fluctuating within a narrow range. However, beneath the quiet price action, on-chain data reveals significant shifts in XRP ownership, hinting at subtle but impactful market activity by large holders.
Whale Wallets Increase Despite Weak Price
According to analytics firm Santiment, the XRP network has seen a net addition of 42 new wallets since the beginning of 2026, each holding at least 1 million XRP tokens. These so-called “millionaire wallets” are typically associated with whales—investors with large capital. This marks the first increase in such wallets since September 2025, occurring even as XRP’s yearly performance remains subdued.
Santiment notes that accumulation by large holders amid weak prices often signals internal market dynamics that could precede trend reversals. Typically, such accumulation patterns are considered early indicators of potential bullish shifts, particularly when paired with tightening supply liquidity.
Technical Outlook Shows Fragility
From a technical perspective, XRP remains in a fragile condition. Currently trading around $1.80, the price is considerably below the 200-day moving average of approximately $2.54. This gap suggests XRP is still in a correction phase, prompting momentum-based traders to await confirmation of breakout before engaging.
Supporting a cautious sentiment, Crypto Slate reports data from CryptoQuant reflecting market hesitation. XRP’s 30-day Sharpe ratio hovers near 0.034, signaling returns have not adequately compensated for volatility. The Sharpe Z-Score is around 0.70, and the 7-day Sharpe Momentum sits close to 0.03, indicating a consolidation phase or base-building rather than a strong upward trend.
Supply Tightening on Exchanges
Further insight from CryptoQuant reveals a reduction in XRP supply on exchanges, currently residing within a “lower zone.” This suggests selling pressure has eased following a withdrawal phase, historically a precursor to price rises — as observed between February and April 2025. Nevertheless, analysts warn that without a volume increase, any price rally may remain short-lived instead of developing into sustained growth. Thin liquidity markets can experience rapid moves but risk failing at resistance points absent continuous buying.
Enhanced Network Activity Signals Fundamental Strength
On the network front, XRP Ledger (XRPL) exhibits encouraging signs. CryptoQuant data highlights a significant rise in decentralized exchange (DEX) activity on the XRPL. The 14-day moving average of DEX transactions hit roughly 1.014 million—a 13-month high—surpassing levels maintained since early 2025. This steady increase suggests more committed participation and sticky liquidity within the XRPL ecosystem, underpinning fundamentals beyond speculative interest.
Future Price Scenarios and Demand Drivers
Looking ahead, crypto asset manager 21Shares outlines several potential trajectories for XRP in 2026. The firm emphasizes the influence of demand from U.S. spot XRP ETFs, which garnered over $1.3 billion in assets during their first month, alongside a 55-day streak of positive fund inflows.
Supply-side analysis from 21Shares shows XRP reserves on exchanges at a seven-year low of about 1.7 billion tokens. This scarcity could intensify supply pressure if structural demand increases persist. Additionally, utility factors such as the growth of the RLUSD stablecoin, the total value locked in XRPL DeFi surpassing $100 million, and a strategic focus on tokenization support XRP’s long-term adoption.
Tokocrypto Research Team interprets the emergence of new millionaire wallets amid sideways price movement as a typical “smart money accumulation” signal. They note, “Whales don’t chase prices; they accumulate when retail interest wanes. This pattern often precedes significant price moves once the distribution or accumulation phase concludes.”
Price Projections for 2026
Based on these observations, 21Shares models three possible 2026 price outcomes for XRP:
- Base scenario: Peak price around $2.45
- Bullish scenario: Peak price near $2.69
- Bearish scenario: Drop to about $1.60
Conclusion
While XRP remains below the $2 threshold with muted price action, underlying data points toward increasing accumulation by large holders, tightening exchange supply, and stronger network engagement. These factors collectively hint at potential shifts in the market balance. However, the lack of accompanying volume growth tempers optimism, making any near-term rally uncertain in durability. Traders and investors may continue to monitor on-chain metrics and ETF-driven demand closely as 2026 unfolds.
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Disclaimer: Investing in cryptocurrencies entails high risks. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk. This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
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